The cost-effectiveness of banning highly hazardous pesticides to prevent suicides due to pesticide self-ingestion across 14 countries: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing suicides is a key Sustainable Development Goal target for improving global health. Highly hazardous pesticides are among the leading causes of death by suicide in low-income and middle-income countries. National bans of acutely toxic highly hazardous pesticides have led to substantial reductions in pesticide-attributable suicides across several countries. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing national bans of highly hazardous pesticides to reduce the burden of pesticide suicides. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to examine the costs and health effects of implementing a national ban of highly hazardous pesticides to prevent suicides due to pesticide self-poisoning, compared with a null comparator. We used WHO cost-effectiveness and strategic planning (WHO-CHOICE) methods to estimate pesticide-attributable suicide rates for 100 years from 2017. Country-specific costs were obtained from the WHO-CHOICE database and denominated in 2017 international dollars (I$), discounted at a 3% annual rate, and health effects were measured in healthy life-years gained (HLYGs). We used a demographic projection model beginning with the country population in the baseline year (2017), split by 1-year age group and sex. Country-specific data on overall suicide rates were obtained for 2017 by age and sex from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 Data Resources. The analysis involved 14 countries spanning low-income to high-income settings, and cost-effectiveness ratios were analysed at the country-specific level and aggregated according to country income group and the proportion of suicides due to pesticides. FINDINGS: Banning highly hazardous pesticides across the 14 countries studied could result in about 28 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24 000-32 000) fewer suicide deaths each year at an annual cost of I$0·007 per capita (95% UI 0·006-0·008). In the population-standardised results for the base case analysis, national bans produced cost-effectiveness ratios of $94 per HLYG (95% UI 73-123) across low-income and lower-middle-income countries and $237 per HLYG (95% UI 191-303) across upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Bans were more cost-effective in countries where a high proportion of suicides are attributable to pesticide self-poisoning, reaching a cost-effectiveness ratio of $75 per HLYG (95% UI 58-99) in two countries with proportions of more than 30%. INTERPRETATION: National bans of highly hazardous pesticides are a potentially cost-effective and affordable intervention for reducing suicide deaths in countries with a high burden of suicides attributable to pesticides. However, our study findings are limited by imperfect data and assumptions that could be improved upon by future studies. FUNDING: WHO.

Epidemiology, management and outcome of paracetamol poisoning in an inner city emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Paracetamol poisoning accounts for just under half of all self-poisoning cases that present to hospitals in England. Treatment with acetylcysteine is routine, yet recommendations regarding its use vary internationally and have recently been revised in England and Wales. METHODS: Data on all cases of paracetamol poisoning presenting to an adult inner city emergency department between May 2011 and April 2012 were prospectively collected using the Bristol Self-harm Surveillance Register. RESULTS: Paracetamol overdoses accounted for 44% of adult self-poisoning cases. A quarter (26.9%) of patients required treatment with acetylcysteine and it was estimated that recent changes in treatment guidelines would increase that proportion to 32.6%. Paracetamol concentration was positively associated with the risk of any adverse reaction to acetylcysteine. 22.5% of patients experienced anaphylactoid reactions to acetylcysteine. There was no clear evidence of an association between risk of anaphylactoid reaction and blood paracetamol levels. Patients presenting with blood paracetamol levels greater than 200 mg/L at 4 h post-ingestion were at greater risk of repeat self-harm (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.21, p=0.033). DISCUSSION: The recent changes in UK treatment guidelines are expected to increase the proportion of our population requiring acetylcysteine by 5.7%. We found no clear evidence that risk of anaphylactoid or more general adverse reaction to acetylcysteine was increased in patients presenting with lower blood paracetamol concentrations. Blood paracetamol level was highlighted as a potentially useful clinical indicator for risk of repeat self-harm.

Maternal iron levels early in pregnancy are not associated with offspring IQ score at age 8, findings from a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Iron is fundamental to many basic biological functions, and animal studies suggest that iron deficiency early in life can have a lasting impact on the developing brain. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used a population-based cohort of mothers and their children to assess the effect of iron status among pregnant women on the cognitive ability of their offspring. But to avoid the inherent confounding that occurs within observational epidemiology studies we examined the association of maternal genotype at single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the genes HFE (rs1799945) and (rs1800562), TF (rs3811647) and TMPRSS6 (rs1800562), which are related to iron, haemoglobin or transferrin levels, on their child's cognitive test scores at age 8. RESULTS: We found strong associations between HFE and TMPRSS6 genotypes and mother's haemoglobin levels early in pregnancy (P-values are all ≤ 4.1 × 10(-5)) and a genetic score comprised of alleles at these loci was even more strongly associated with haemoglobin levels (P=3.0 × 10(-18)), suggesting that this was a good instrument to use to look at the effect of prenatal iron levels on offspring cognition. However, mother's genotype at the above loci was not associated with offspring IQ at age 8. CONCLUSIONS: We therefore concluded that there is no evidence of an effect of exposure to low levels of iron (within the normal range) in pregnancy on offspring cognition at age 8. However, pregnant women in the UK with low haemoglobin levels are prescribed iron supplements and so we were unable to look at the effect of iron deficiency in our study.

The causal role of smoking in anxiety and depression: a Mendelian randomization analysis of the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is strongly associated with mental illness but the causal direction of the association is uncertain. We investigated the causal relationship between smoking and symptoms of anxiety and depression in the Norwegian HUNT study using the rs1051730 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variant located in the nicotine acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15 as an instrumental variable for smoking phenotypes. Among smokers, this SNP is robustly associated with smoking quantity and nicotine dependence. Method In total, 53 601 participants were genotyped for the rs1051730 SNP and provided information on smoking habits and symptoms of anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: Self-reported smoking was positively associated with the prevalence of both anxiety and depression, and the measured polymorphism was positively associated with being a current smoker and the number of cigarettes smoked in current smokers. In the sample as a whole, risk of anxiety increased with each affected T allele [odds ratio (OR) 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.09, p = 0.002] but there was no association with depression (p = 0.31). However, we found no clear association of the polymorphism with either anxiety (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09, p = 0.34) or depression (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95-1.09, p = 0.62) among smokers. CONCLUSIONS: As there was no association of the smoking-related rs1051730 SNP with anxiety and depression among smokers, the results suggest that smoking is not a cause of anxiety and depression.

Varenicline and suicidal behaviour: a cohort study based on data from the General Practice Research Database.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether varenicline, a recently licensed smoking cessation product, is associated with an increased risk of suicide and suicidal behaviour compared with alternative treatments bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy. DESIGN: Cohort study nested within the General Practice Research Database. SETTING: Primary care in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 80,660 men and women aged 18-95 years were prescribed a new course of a smoking cessation product between 1 September 2006 and 31 May 2008; the initial drugs prescribed during follow-up were nicotine replacement products (n=63 265), varenicline (n=10 973), and bupropion (n=6422). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were fatal and non-fatal self harm, secondary outcomes were suicidal thoughts and depression, all investigated with Cox's proportional hazards models. RESULTS: There was no clear evidence that varenicline was associated with an increased risk of fatal (n=2) or non-fatal (n=166) self harm, although a twofold increased risk cannot be ruled out on the basis of the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. Compared with nicotine replacement products, the hazard ratio for self harm among people prescribed varenicline was 1.12 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.88), and it was 1.17 (0.59 to 2.32) for people prescribed bupropion. There was no evidence that varenicline was associated with an increased risk of depression (n=2244) (hazard ratio 0.88 (0.77 to1.00)) or suicidal thoughts (n=37) (1.43 (0.53 to 3.85)). CONCLUSION: Although a twofold increased risk of self harm with varenicline cannot be ruled out, these findings provide some reassurance concerning its association with suicidal behaviour.

Association of measures of fetal and childhood growth with non-clinical psychotic symptoms in 12-year-olds: the ALSPAC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that impaired fetal and childhood growth are associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, but the association of pre-adult growth with non-clinical psychotic symptoms (psychosis-like symptoms) in children is not known. AIMS: To explore the associations of body size at birth and age 7.5 years with childhood psychosis-like symptoms. METHOD: Prospective cohort of children followed up from birth to age 12: the ALSPAC cohort. RESULTS: Data on 6000 singleton infants born after 37 weeks of gestation. A one standard deviation increase in birth weight was associated with an 18% reduction in the risk of definite psychosis-like symptoms after adjusting for age and gestation (Odds ratio (OR) = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.73-0.92, P = 0.001). This association was partly confounded by maternal anthropometry, smoking during pregnancy, socioeconomic status and IQ. A similar association was seen for birth length and psychosis-like symptoms, which disappeared after controlling for birth weight. There was little evidence for an association of 7-year height or adiposity with psychosis-like symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Measures of impaired fetal, but not childhood, growth are associated with an increased risk of psychosis-like symptoms in 12-year-olds.

Childhood diet and insulin-like growth factors in adulthood: 65-year follow-up of the Boyd Orr Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: High levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) are associated with an increased cancer risk and reduce risk of diabetes and coronary heart disease. We investigated associations of diet in childhood, in particular energy intake, with the IGF system in adulthood to determine if IGF-I - disease associations could be linked to early nutrition. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Sixteen survey centres in England and Scotland that originally participated in the Carnegie (Boyd Orr) Survey of Diet and Health in Pre-War Britain, 1937-1939. SUBJECTS: Seven hundred and twenty-eight participants (679 with complete data) in the Boyd Orr cohort. METHODS: Participants were originally surveyed between 1937 and 1939 (at median age 5.8 years; inter-quartile range: 2.9-9.6) and were followed up for 65 years. Dietary exposure in childhood was assessed from 7-day household food inventories. Outcomes are expressed as regression coefficients for the change in IGF per standard deviation increased childhood nutrient or food intake, as derived from levels of household consumption. RESULTS: In fully-adjusted models, energy-rich family diets in childhood were not associated with IGF-I (regression coefficient: 0.9 ng/ml; 95% confidence interval (CI): -1.8, 3.7), IGF-II, IGF binding proteins (IGFBP)-2 or IGFBP-3 in adulthood. IGF-I was associated inversely with childhood family-diets high in milk (-2.5 ng/ml; -5.1, 0.1; P=0.05) and positively with vegetable-rich diets (3.5 ng/ml; 0.9, 6.1; P=0.009). IGF-I was not associated with family diets rich in protein, carbohydrates, fats, calcium, meat or fruit. IGF-II, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 were not related to childhood family diet. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that energy-rich family diets in childhood do not program the IGF system in adulthood. As childhood diet was based on household consumption, however, measurement error may obscure individual-level diet-IGF associations. The associations of milk- and vegetable-rich family diets in childhood with IGF-I could be chance findings, but nevertheless are consistent with recent publications and warrant further investigation.

IQ in early adulthood and later cancer risk: cohort study of one million Swedish men.

BACKGROUND: While several studies have reported an inverse relation between IQ and total mortality rates, little is known about the association, if any, between IQ and disease-specific outcomes, particularly cancer. METHODS: A cohort of 959,540 Swedish men who underwent IQ testing at military conscription at around 19 years of age, and who were followed for incident cancer. Hazards ratios for the relation between IQ and 20 cancer outcomes were computed using Cox regression. RESULTS: During an average of 19.5 years of follow-up, there were 10 273 new cancer cases. IQ showed few associations with the cancer end points studied. There was a suggestion that IQ was positively associated with lung cancer, and inversely related to stomach, oesophageal and liver malignancies, although effects were modest. The only robust gradient was found for IQ in relation to skin cancer (HRper one standard deviation advantage in IQ; 95% confidence interval 1.18; 1.13, 1.24; P value for trend across categories: <0.01), which was attenuated but retained statistical significance after adjustment for indices of socioeconomic position across the life course. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of Swedish men followed into middle age, IQ was related to very few of the cancer outcomes under investigation. This indicates that the recent observation that low IQ is related to increased mortality rates may not be generated by an IQ-cancer gradient. Given that the present analyses are among the first to examine these associations, replication is required.

Associations of components of adult height with coronary heart disease in postmenopausal women: the British women's heart and health study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between components of adult height and coronary heart disease (CHD) in postmenopausal women. METHODS: Cross sectional analysis of 4286 women randomly selected from 23 British towns. The association of components of adult height with prevalent CHD (n = 694) were assessed. RESULTS: Shorter stature, shorter leg length, and trunk length were all associated with CHD in age adjusted analyses. The association between trunk length and CHD was attenuated to the null with adjustment for smoking. The leg length-CHD association was independent of smoking, socioeconomic position in childhood and adulthood, birth weight, and other potential confounders. Insulin resistance did not appear to be an important mediating factor in the association between leg length and CHD. After full adjustment for all potential confounding factors the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of CHD for a 1 SD (4.3 cm) increase in leg length was 0.84 (0.77 to 0.93) and the odds ratio for a 1 SD (0.05) increase in the leg to trunk ratio was 0.85 (0.79 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: The specific association between leg length and CHD suggests that early life environmental exposures that influence skeletal growth also influence CHD risk in later life.

Do height-related variations in insulin-like growth factors underlie the associations of stature with adult chronic disease?

Tall people, particularly those with long legs, have an increased risk of developing cancer but a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and type II diabetes. We examined associations of stature and body mass index with IGF-I, IGF-II, and IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-2 and IGFBP-3 in 274 men aged 50-70 yr to investigate whether variations in growth factor levels underlie associations of anthropometry with a number of adult diseases. Height and leg and trunk length were not strongly associated with circulating levels of IGF-I, IGF-II, or IGFBP-3. The molar ratio of IGF-I/IGFBP-3 increased with increases in the leg/trunk length ratio (P = 0.06). IGFBP-2 was positively associated with leg length and inversely associated with trunk length. Mean levels of IGFBP-2 (in nanograms per milliliter) across quartiles of increasing leg length were 504.4 493.6, 528.7, and 578.8 (P(trend) = 0.06), and for trunk length were 615.2, 507.2, 498.6, 488.5 (P(trend) < 0.01), suggesting that variations in IGFBP-2, or a factor influencing its levels in the circulation, may contribute to biological mechanisms underlying height-disease associations. We conclude that whereas growth-influencing exposures during childhood, which may operate through effects on IGF-I levels, have long-term influences on disease risk, they do not necessarily program IGF-I levels throughout life. The associations of anthropometry with IGFBP-2 merit additional investigation.

Dietary restraint and the mis-reporting of anthropometric measures by middle-aged adults.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether levels of dietary restraint are associated with mis-reporting measures of adiposity by middle-aged adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of middle-aged men and women, the parents of a group of young adults followed up since birth. METHODS: In all, 631 couples were mailed questionnaires and asked to record their height, weight and waist circumference. A paper tape measure with instructions for use was attached. Couples also completed the dietary restraint section of the Dutch Eating Behaviour Questionnaire, and provided information on employment and lifestyle habits. A subsample of participants was then invited to attend a clinic where detailed anthropometric measures were taken. RESULTS: In all, 435 women (69%) and 332 men (55%) completed the questionnaire; of those invited, 182 (85%) women and 102 (61%) men attended a clinic session. Regression analyses showed that the dietary restraint score was associated with the mis-reporting of BMI by women (P<0.01), but not men (test for interaction with gender, P=0.11). In women, the difference between the measured and reported BMI increased by 0.36 kg/m(2) (0.11-0.61) per unit increase in restraint score. This association was independent of age, smoking, social class, slimming, exercise frequency or television viewing time, but was attenuated in models controlling for measured BMI. The dietary restraint score was not associated with mis-reporting of waist circumference in men or women. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary restraint score may be a useful tool for identifying individuals more likely to mis-report anthropometric measurements, although associations may vary by gender.

Temperament in young adulthood and later mortality: prospective observational study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between a clinician assessment of temperament in early adulthood and cause specific mortality. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Glasgow University. PARTICIPANTS: 9239 male former students aged 16-30 (mean 20.5) years who participated in an ongoing health survey from 1948-68. A physician recorded free text assessment of temperament, which seemed to capture aspects of personality (trait) and mental health (state), was coded into: stable, anxious, schizoid, hypomanic, odd, depressed, immature, hypochondriacal, unstable, and obsessive. Associations between temperament and mortality were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models. MAIN RESULTS: There were 878 deaths. Most students-8342 (90.3%)-were assessed as stable, the remaining 897 (9.7%) having at least one, and 103 (1.1%) having more than one, temperament type. The second most common temperament was anxiety, recorded in 520 (5.6%) students. In multivariable analyses, having at least one temperament type was associated with increased all cause and stroke mortality, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 1.23 (1.01 to 1.50) and 1.95 (1.06 to 3.59) respectively, compared with stable students. Students with more than one temperament type had higher risk of death from: all causes, 2.05 (1.36 to 3.09); stroke, 3.26 (1.01 to 10.56); and cancer, 2.90 (1.62 to 5.20). Anxiety was positively associated with all cause and cancer mortality, respective hazard ratios: 1.36 (1.07 to 1.72) and 1.51 (1.04 to 2.20). Men labelled hypomanic had increased cardiovascular mortality risk, 1.90 (1.05 to 3.44). CONCLUSIONS: Markers of early adult psychological distress are associated with increased mortality. Mechanisms underlying these associations require investigation.

Body mass index in early and mid-adulthood, and subsequent mortality: a historical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between body mass index (BMI) in early and mid-adulthood, and BMI change between these ages, and mortality. METHODS: Historical cohort study of 629 men, who had height and weight measured at the Student Health Service of the University of Glasgow in 1948-1949 (median age 22 y) and who reported their weight in a postal questionnaire in 1963-1966 (median age 38 y). The participants were followed up until April 2002 (mean follow-up: 35 y). During this time, 124 men died, 68 of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 33 of cancer. FINDINGS: Mean BMI increased from 21.4 kg/m(2) (standard deviation (s.d.): 2.2 kg/m(2)) in early adulthood to 24.2 kg/m(2) (s.d.: 3.0 kg/m(2)) in mid-adulthood. All-cause mortality was associated with being overweight (BMI> or =25 kg/m(2)) at age 22 but not at age 38, adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.85 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-3.13) and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.73-1.52), respectively. BMI at age 22 y was more strongly associated with CVD mortality than was BMI at age 38 y, adjusted HR(22 y): 2.41 (95% CI: 1.26-4.60) and HR(38 y): 1.33 (95% CI: 0.82-2.16). There was no clear relationship between cancer mortality and BMI at either age: HR(22 y): 0.68 (95% CI: 0.16-2.91), HR(38 y): 0.90 (95% CI: 0.44-1.84), although relatively few men died of cancer in the follow-up period. Similar patterns were seen for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) as for being overweight. Analyses of weight patterns indicated particularly detrimental effects of overweight persisting from early to mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: BMI in early adulthood is positively related to CVD mortality in later life in men. The risk associated with early adulthood adiposity appeared to be greater than that in mid-adulthood. We did not demonstrate an association between weight gain and later mortality. These results reinforce the need to stem the obesity epidemic in children and young adults.

Breast density: agreement of measures from film and digital image.

Mammographic density, in particular density from digital images, is increasingly used in breast cancer research. We investigated the concordance between density assigned by the same radiologist to a mammogram film and a digital image of the same mammogram. Two density measures were investigated, Wolfe parenchymal patterns and a six category classification (SCC) system of density. Included in the study were 78 women, 528 mammograms. Crude and weighted Kappa statistics were used to estimate agreement between the density assigned from the film and the image. Kappa for Wolfe measures was 71%, p<0.001 and for SCC measures was 54%, p<0.001. Weighted Kappa values were 79%, p<0.001 and 77%, p<0.001, respectively. There was some evidence to suggest that the digitized image may be assigned a higher Wolfe but not numerical category than the original film, and the magnitude of these differences was small. Neither age nor mammogram view (craniocaudal or mediolateral oblique) were related to the likelihood of agreement of the two density measurements. This evidence justifies the use of digital images in the visual assessment of breast density in research studies.

An investigation of fetal, postnatal and childhood growth with insulin-like growth factor I and binding protein 3 in adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: Weight at birth and adult height are positively associated with cancer risk. These patterns may be mediated by the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis. We have examined whether pre- and postnatal growth patterns have a long-term influence on adult IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels. DESIGN: A follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial of milk supplementation in pregnancy and childhood. SUBJECTS: A total of 951 individuals took part in a study of diet and growth in South Wales between 1972 and 1974 followed up from birth until their mid-20s. MEASUREMENTS: Anthopometric measures at birth, postnatally up to 5 years of age and in adulthood, and serum measures of IGF-I and IGF-I to IGFBP-3 ratio at mean age of 25 years. RESULTS: A total of 63 subjects (70%) provided blood for analysis. We found no association between birth dimensions and adult IGF-I. Subjects who exhibited 'catch-down growth' had lower IGF-I levels (P-value for trend 0.02). Adult height was positively related to IGF-I, for every one standard deviation increase in adult height, IGF-I increased by 3.75 ng/dl (95% CI 0.46-7.08, P = 0.03). Adiposity was inversely associated with the IGF-I and IGF-I to IGFBP-3 ratio and positively associated with IGFBP-3. The strength of the associations increased with age. Downward centile crossing at any time in childhood was associated with lower IGF-I whilst the highest levels were observed in subjects who were tall throughout their early life course. Adult height remained a significant predictor of IGF-I even after adjustment for earlier growth. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that IGF-I levels in early adulthood are associated with patterns of childhood growth as well as adult stature and adiposity. These associations suggest the IGFs may contribute to anthropometric associations with cancer risk.

Associations of adult measures of childhood growth with breast cancer: findings from the British Women's Heart and Health Study.

Since the two components of adult height - leg length and trunk length - are poorly correlated with each other and appear to be influenced by different early life factors, examining their separate influence on breast cancer may provide additional insights into the mechanisms responsible for the positive association between adult height and breast cancer. In a cross-sectional study of 4286 women aged 60-79 years, in whom there were 170 cases of breast cancer, we found total height, leg length and trunk length were all modestly positively and linearly associated with breast cancer. The magnitudes of the associations of leg and trunk length were similar: fully adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of breast cancer for a one standard deviation (s.d.) increase in leg length 1.17 (0.98, 1.39) and for a 1 s.d. increase in trunk length 1.19 (0.99, 1.41). Self-reported birth weight (available on 33% of the sample) was positively and linearly associated with breast cancer: fully adjusted odds ratio of breast cancer for a 1 s.d. increase in birth weight 1.30 (0.93, 1.80). These associations were all independent of each other and other potential confounding factors and are likely to reflect different mechanisms by which factors operating prenatally and prepubertally influence breast cancer risk.

Are diet-prostate cancer associations mediated by the IGF axis? A cross-sectional analysis of diet, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 in healthy middle-aged men.

We examined the association of diet with insulin-like growth factors (IGF) in 344 disease-free men. Raised levels of IGF-I and/or its molar ratio with IGFBP-3 were associated with higher intakes of milk, dairy products, calcium, carbohydrate and polyunsaturated fat; lower levels with high vegetable consumption, particularly tomatoes. These patterns support the possibility that IGFs may mediate some diet-cancer associations.

Fruit, vegetables, and antioxidants in childhood and risk of adult cancer: the Boyd Orr cohort.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between food and nutrient intake, measured in childhood, and adult cancer in a cohort with over 60 years follow up. DESIGN AND SETTING: The study is based on the Boyd Orr cohort. Intake of fruit and vegetables, energy, vitamins C and E, carotene, and retinol was assessed from seven day household food inventories carried out during a study of family diet and health in 16 rural and urban areas of England and Scotland in 1937-39. PARTICIPANTS: 4999 men and women, from largely working class backgrounds, who had been children in the households participating in the pre-war survey. Analyses are based on 3878 traced subjects with full data on diet and social circumstances. MAIN RESULTS: Over the follow up period there were 483 incident malignant neoplasms. Increased childhood fruit intake was associated with reduced risk of incident cancer. In fully adjusted logistic regression models, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) with increasing quartiles of fruit consumption were 1.0 (reference), 0.66 (0.48 to 0.90), 0.70 (0.51 to 0.97), 0.62 (0.43 to 0.90); p value for linear trend=0.02. The association was weaker for cancer mortality. There was no clear pattern of association between the other dietary factors and total cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood fruit consumption may have a long term protective effect on cancer risk in adults. Further prospective studies, with individual measures of diet are required to further elucidate these relations.